Reading the Analysis portion of the Tipsheet: First off, the #1 most important thing is to make sure after you've downloaded or saved a tipsheet, to view it with whatever text reader you like but make sure Wordwrap is turned off... If wordwrap is not turned off, then the columns of information may not line up properly. The Hot Track Tips sheets were originally made to be opened and read properly by using the native text reader on Windows (Notepad), set to it's default setting. When you open the text with "Notepad" go to "Format" then to "Font". Set the font to "Lucida Console", "Regular" and "10" point. The Handicapper's Picks: These are on the bottom right, these picks have the dog's power point rating (Actpts), followed by the post number then the dog's name. A few things to remember about these picks: Humans can pick the "ends" of the grade system much better than the middle. Our computer picks are a little bit more "even" than the handicapper although they hit slightly less. Another thing to keep in mind is, when the Handicapper structures his selections, he has it so the dog he feels most likely to win is on top, AND the NEXT most likely to win dog is ranked second. This is different than many people in that they have a pure ranking of most likely to win followed by most likely to come in second... What that means is you CAN key BOTH the top selection AND the second selection for the WIN and come out good... This can be Very important to remember when structuring your exotic wagers, or just a simple win bet! As an Example... At Gulf, our handicapper's overall win rate for each grade is as follows; ROI definition = Return On Investment Grade "M" hits 42% and has a +38% ROI, either the 1st or 2nd pick wins over 60%. Grade "J" hits 33% and has a +22% ROI, either the 1st or 2nd pick wins over 50%. Grade "D" hits 23% and has a +10% ROI Grade "C" hits 22% and has a -5% ROI Grade "B" hits 25% and has a +8% ROI Grade "A" hits 32% and has a +30% ROI, either the 1st or 2nd pick wins over 50%. Grade "AA" hits 40% & has a +32% ROI, either the 1st or 2nd pick wins over 60%. As you can see, "AA" and "M" hit a much higher percentage of the time and have a better ROI (Return on Investment) This is the way it is at all the tracks we handicap. At some tracks we hit better and some not quite as good, but overall our handicappers hit at about 40% cold winners in the "M" and "A", "AA", "S" top grade races. Overall at Gulf we hit 29.5% cold race winners and have an ROI of about +19%. Of course, if there are proportionally more "AA" and "M" races for a time period, overall statistics will be higher, and of course vice versa. The Crowd at Gulf hits about 25% and has an ROI of about -20% The handicapper will also have it so that either the 1st or 2nd top selection will win on average 45-55% of all races depending upon which track you're Following. A wager structure of 1,2 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5,6 (by ranked order) $24, will hit about 25% of the time. That means using this structure, on average you'll spend about $96 to hit a trifecta. The average $1 trifecta payout when the top pick wins is around $110 (ROI +12%). The average $1 trifecta payout when the second pick wins and the first pick doesn't come in, is around $165 (ROI +42%). The Numbers in each of the big columns, are an AVERAGE of the dog's last Twelve races (Troubled races included). All the rows are in order, the first row is for the dog in Post # 1, Going all the way to the Last row which is for the Dog in Post position # 8. In the example below, Column 1 Row 1 is for the dog in post #1 "NINA'S GAMBLER". It's his average break for the last 12 races (including troubled races). Column 1 Row 2 is the dog in Post Position #2 "GABLE YADA YADA" average break for his last 12 starts. The same pattern is used for all the columns and rows. For the "Break", "1/8", "Stretch", and "Finish" Columns the lower the number shown the better. For ALL other Columns the HIGHER the Number shown the Better the Value. Proj. Faves--> The Win%, Quin%, Tri%, Grade, Recent Odds, and Time are all wrapped up into one equation to look for the likely Crowd Favorites in a race. The larger and more knowledgeable the Crowd is, and the larger the Win Pools, the more likely this equation will come out. The purpose of this calculation is to look for OVERLAYS. The greater the difference between the Actual odds on favorites and the rankings of this equation, the greater the possible PROFIT OVERLAY is. When using this information it is suggested NOT to wager into the Win Pool, but instead to take advantage of the overlay in the Place, Show, Quinella and Exotics Pools, to maximize the profit potential! PAR---> This is the actual Average winning FPS for the last three months for the Track, Distance and Grade the race is being run over, for this particular set of dogs. This is a way to find strength of field ratings a bit more detailed and accurately than merely using the Grade of the race alone. If a dog's average times are close to or actually better than the Par FPS and the dog is ranked well in Late Speed, coupled with a favorable post position, you have a very good dog to use as a key. Rate--> The space directly to the right of the "Rate-->" is How predictable the Handicapper thinks the race is. The MORE *'s (Stars) there are, the more likely the handicapper's prediction will come out. If there are no Stars, the Handicapper suggests skipping the race and looking for a more predictable one. There are Three other symbols used in the rate area they are: The ^ which means the top handicapper's choice dog has AVERAGE times which are better than the Par WINNING Times for that Grade/Distance. If you see a ! symbol, that means the top choice dog is rated 2nd or better in EVERY basic handicapping factor (Early, Late, Speed/Time, Class, Form). If you see a ~ symbol that means the SECOND choice/ranked handicapper's pick is rated very well in many of the basic handicapping factors as well. ActPts is the actual power percentage based on a max of 1000 that our Stat based Computer program assigns to each of the dogs. The CompuStat program examines over 200 Factors and over 2500 variables then assigns 1000 to it's top ranked dog, then a percentage of strength against the top ranked dog is taken for the other dogs in the race. Many times you'll notice the ActPts DON'T agree with the handicapper's predictions.... This is just because the handicapper IS influenced by a dog's statistical POWER but in this particular case just doesn't neccessarily agree with it... Sometimes he/she is right and sometimes they're wrong...! In the Example below, the #1 Ranked Dog is the 5 Dog ML'S WEIRD HERALD, the Handicapper believes this dog will come in First, and the CompuStat program assigned 1000 Points making it the Number One choice by that way as well. Early-> refers to the top five Early Speed dogs in order. The 3 dog is rated tops in Early Speed in this case, with the 8 6 5 4 next in order. Late--> refers to the top six LATE Speed dogs. This calculation is formed by measuring the "Average Change of Position" modified by the grade in which it was accomplished, for each dog in the race. The dogs with the most Positive change of Position (modified considering the Grade they were done in versus today's Grade) are considered to be the best LATE Speed dogs in the race. Speed-> refers to the top dogs in order ranked by speed/time. The dog's last 12 untroubled races are used. The Average FPS, The Best FPS, The 3 Best FPS and the Average Modified FPS (Modified by post position and minimum possible distance travelled from that post) are formed into an equation to find which dog has the BEST OVERALL Speed rating. (FPS = Feet Per Second) As a Stand-Alone factor "Speed" picks about 28% winners overall. Combining this factor with Class can makes a superior handicapping formula. Class-> refers to the Calculation that handles how much "Class" a dog has. The higher the Grade and success in Grade a dog has, the more Class a dog is considered to have. As a Stand-Alone Factor this is one of the best factors there is for finding consistent winners and wager rankings. It can pick race winners at an OVERALL rate of OVER 27%! IF you use it only in the Top Grade or Maiden races, the percentage is even higher, up to 42%! It's very hard to beat this factor as a method for choosing winning racers and races that can show a PROFIT! Form--> refers to the dogs that are coming into or out of Form. This calculation can sometimes be used to pick up on "Sleepers"..... Many times a dog's lines don't neccessarily show to be very good, YET the Form factor rates the dog at a 1, 2 or 3. What this means is you might have a dog that nobody else is picking up on, and you might get yourself a nice longshot to wager on! Spots-> HotTrackTips maintains a database... in this database we have the dog's lines, results, wager histories, AND over 5000 "Spot Plays"! Spot Plays are situations where according to historical data the same situation has occurred before.... The computer's database program automatically finds the Spot Play that most closely resembles the current race then ranks the dogs accordingly! Compu-> = "Computer Generated Picks" This is a purely mechanical oriented way to pick the dogs. Basically it's the Computer's selections. In handicapping "circles" this type of mechanically oriented system uses is known as a benchmark formula. It refers to the top six Early, Late, and Speed dogs "Combined" in a specially designed formula that produces a true unbiased, performance ranked potential for at least the top five dogs, in order. The formula uses a "Time/Distance" line for comparing the dog's Average "Clean" Call positions against the grade in which they were accomplished versus the Time in which the dog ran in these lines. This formula produces more dogs in the top four positions than any other single known formula. It is second ONLY to a Human Handicapper. And, since the computer is not influenced by emotions... SOMETIMES it may actually be better. When looking at an entire year's worth of races from all the tracks that we provide tipsheets for, the Computerized picks hit at an OVERALL rate of about 28% race winners, the handicappers hit rate is about 30% OVERALL, and the crowd favorite win rate is about 27% overall. BASE-3 In this column we give you the dog's three best FPS runs in the last 12, AND the lines that accompany those runs... This is one of the preferred "pencil-capping" techniques, BUT that technique uses only the lines available in the racing program (5-8 lines). We've found that by using the last 12 lines instead of just the last 5-8 your success will be greatly enhanced. In the BASE-3 factors, there are: WFPS--> The three Race winning FPS values for the 3 best FPS lines. BRK---> The three OFF or Break call values for the 3 best FPS lines. 1/8---> The three 1/8 call values for the 3 best FPS lines. STR---> The three Stretch call values for the 3 best FPS lines. FIN---> The three Finish call values for the 3 best FPS lines. ACP---> The three Average Change of Position values for the 3 best FPS lines. FPS---> This one is different, it's not just the best three lines averaged... In this one, FPS or feet per second is used in lieu of times so that compensations/corrections can be made easier for distance, box and track variance changes. Examples of compensations made... Two dogs are in a race... both ran a flat 31.00 last time out in a 5/16 , on the same day... however, one was in the 8 hole and the other was in the 1 hole. Which is actually faster? A dog runs a minimum of 14 feet farther from the 8 posting than the 1 post. So if a dog ran a 31.00 from the 1 post, that's 1650/31 = 53.22 FPS. On the other hand a dog running a 31.00 from the 8 post ran faster, because that's 1664/31 = 53.67 FPS Now to carry it further, there's 1650 feet, 550 yards or 503 meters... in a 5/16 mile race. For every 330 feet farther than 1650 the dogs tend to slow down a little more than about 1 FPS (on average) The slower the track surface, the higher the number. Example: Tampa has pretty slow surface so it will be higher than 1 FPS difference. Tampa the average A 3/8 race (1980 feet) is running around 38.04. So that's 1980/38.04 = 52.05 FPS The average A 5/16 race (1650 feet) is running around 30.93. So that's 1650/30.93 = 53.34 FPS That's a difference of 1.29 FPS. Now if a dog is moving up or down in distance for a race you now have a baseline compensation that can be made. If a dog has been running only 3/8 races and then is moved to 5/16 or vice versa... you can tell whether he will be running within acceptable parameters. Another compensation made is track variance. Some days (due to weather or differences in maintenance) the track is faster or slower than the average. It's important to know the baseline averages for each grade and distance so that, that can be compensated for as well. And of course it is. Grade-> The three best Grade/Class values for the last 6 lines and the last 12 lines, averaged. Gulf Analysis Race 1 A 1650 11-09-01 Eve. Proj. Faves--> 6 5 3 4 1 8 2 7 Break 1/8 Stretch Finish GAIN AvgFPS BstFPS WPSpt CLASS FORM PVal 5.48 5.75 5.42 4.59 1.16 53.09 53.66 55.4 43.5 133 586 5.52 5.39 4.41 3.99 1.40 53.08 54.17 65.8 35.5 195 756 2.83 2.84 3.25 4.09 -1.25 53.06 53.72 49.3 84.8 147 703 6.02 4.35 4.16 4.00 0.34 52.99 53.80 42.2 66.9 154 731 5.25 4.18 4.16 3.67 0.52 53.42 54.13 84.2 100.0 129 758 3.60 3.49 3.49 3.41 0.08 52.69 53.58 100.0 63.0 192 797 5.14 5.25 5.16 4.92 0.33 52.99 53.60 58.1 48.4 200 709 1.26 2.02 2.52 3.10 -1.09 53.12 53.68 67.8 57.9 158 772 FACTORS ORDER BASE-3 ORDER PAR---> 53.65 ActPts- -Post- --NAME Rate--> WFPS--> 5 4 2 8 3 6 1000 5 ML'S WEIRD HERALD Early-> 3 8 6 5 4 2 BRK---> 8 6 3 4 7 2 660 3 THY RIO Late--> 2 5 1 7 4 3 1/8---> 6 3 8 4 5 7 627 4 BEAMUMUPSCOTTY Speed-> 5 2 4 8 1 3 STR---> 6 8 3 5 7 2 603 2 GABLE YADA YADA Class-> 5 3 4 8 6 2 FIN---> 5 6 8 2 7 4 527 7 PHOENIX RAIN Form--> 7 6 3 8 4 5 ACP---> 2 1 5 7 4 3 723 6 CURRENT FURY Spots-> 5 3 2 6 8 7 FPS---> 5 4 2 8 6 3 597 8 Y KNOT CAROLINA Compu-> 5 3 4 7 1 8 Grade-> 5 3 4 1 7 6 383 1 NINA'S GAMBLER (Notice the space between the FACTORS and BASE-3 column numbers... the first number is the first ranked dog, a space then the next number is the second ranked dog, and so on...) The "FACTORS" and "BASE-3" Handicapping columns are a VERY valuable tool. After handicapping just a FEW races you will start seeing patterns that indicate winners contenders and noncontenders. You will notice, if you take the #5 dog (he was scratched) out of the above Columns it comes down to a battle between the #2, #3, #4, #7 and #8 dogs... RACE 1 11/09/2001 5-16 MILE COURSE F GG GRADE A _________________________________________________________________________________________ Beamumupscotty 80 4 6 5 2 1-1 30.85 4.40 Powerful drive in Thy Rio 69 3 1 1-1 1-2 2-1 30.94 5.50 Beat out late in Phoenix Rain 75 7 5 4 4 3-2 31.01 9.10 Late spurt for show in Y Knot Carolina 62 8 2 2 3 4-3 31.05 *1.50 Early contender in Nina's Gambler 75 1 4 7 7 5-5 31.19 6.40 Wide 1st turn md Gable Yada Yada 71 2 7 6 6 6-5* 31.24 7.30 Bumped early in Current Fury 59 6 3 3 5 7-6 31.26 6.40 Early threat rl Win Place Show Beamumupscotty $10.80 $4.20 $2.80 Thy Rio $4.40 $3.00 Phoenix Rain $7.20 Exacta 4-3 $51.30 Quinella 3-4 $9.00 Trifecta 4-3-7 $115.90 $231.80 Scratched: ML'S WEIRDHERALD. This particular race is a bit more difficult than most to see the pattern in it but.... Taking out the #5 Dog (Scratched), you see it's really quite obvious that the two strongest competitors in the race are the #3 and #4 dogs. Just look at the FACTORS and BASE-3 sets and it becomes quite obvious! In this case the handicapper gave the edge to the #3 dog because of his early speed and Class ratings are higher, even though the #4 shows to have more Actual Speed as measured by FPS. The idea behind this is, even though the #4 is FASTER he still has to find his way through traffic, and therefore might not get there in time... In this case he DID find his way through and DID end up winning. This is OK, since one of the most basic wager structures included both the #3 and #4 dogs as win keys... This EXACT SAME technique can be used for PRACTICALLY ANY race with just as much, and usually MORE Success. All it requires is just a little bit of practice and the ability to remember the patterns you see!!! Some favorite and very effective wager structures are: (Trifectas by ranked order) 1/ 2-3-4/ 2-3-4-5 for $9 and 1-2/ 1-2-3-4/ 1-2-3-4-5 for $18 Using one of these simple wager structures on this race you would have spent a maximum of $18, and you would have hit the race with the $18 wager. making a profit of OVER $97 on this one race alone! You can also get away with using.... simple and effective Tri structures are like: 1/2-3-4/ALL $18 or 1/2-3-4/2-3-4-5-6 $12 or 1/2-3-4-5/2-3-4-5 $12 Other favorite and effective wager structures are: (Quinellas by ranked dogs) 1/ 2 for $2, keep it simple a inexpensive. The races where the rating is one or more stars, the 1/ 2-3-4 for $6 Quinella is effective. To enhance your winning even more, you should only wager on on races that are considered "Best Bets" These are races where the handicapper has awarded two or more * (stars) in the Rate--> row, this tells you the race was more handicappable, and will be hit more often than others! Of course betting on "end grades" like "M", "A", "AA", and "S" will also enhance your hit percentages as well. Using the Analysis portion to Handicap for yourself: For people who wish to handicap the races themselves, the Analysis portion is a VERY handy tool. All the Major Column Values in the actual Race Program you get from the Race Track are averaged and listed right next to each other. You can use Whatever style of "Capping" you like and using the columns allows you to do it much more Quickly and Accurately. PLUS since the Columns use the last TWELVE lines instead of JUST the standard 5-8 lines listed in the Track's Program, you get a better look at the Dog's True capabilities, without delving into lines that are to old to give perspective as to how this dog is doing NOW. HANDICAPPING FOR FUN AND PROFIT USING THE TIPSHEET: Handicapping is not difficult, if you're willing to abide by a few simple rules anyone can make consistent long-term profits. Following is a simple example of how it can be done. There's two different kinds of factors... 1) Actual Factors, or I.E. "a dog that is first to break wins 30% of the time, a dog that is first to the 1/8 wins 50% of the time or a dog that's 1st to the Str call wins 70% of the time." 2) Predicted Factors, the application of handicapping to try and predict where a dog will be at a certain point in the race in comparison to the other dogs in the race. OR, simple averaging of a particular Call and drawing a comparison to the other dogs in the race. At first glance it would seem all a person would have to do is average a single "Actual Factor", such as the Stretch call and get a fair representation of what dog will be there first, OR possibly, Average all the major factors together and see who is the "Best".... But, this is not the best way to draw handicapping conclusions. What IS THE BEST way to use the information that is provided??? ((All the following information is taken from Gulf Greyhound Stats. Because of track variables such as length of stretch, width of track, width of box, angle and bank of turns, footing and maintenance procedures.... Stats and will vary somewhat between tracks. Stats will vary between grades because of dog's racing experience, and consistency of the dog's running styles. Also Stats will vary between matinee and evening performances, because of the lighting conditions. Matinee performances generally will have more Late speed type dogs win or do well in races than the Evening performances.)) First of all you need a LIST some of The "Actual Factors" and what they mean for the race in which your handicapping. There are MANY other factors as shown by the large amount listed in the analysis portion of the tipsheet, but for this summary (to keep it shorter) we'll limit it to these which are also listed in the analysis and or BASE-3 factors portion: W-P-S % (Broken down).... For a Maiden (M) race this is NOT a neccessarily good Actual Factor, But, as you go UP the Grade Scale it DOES become more indicitive of how well a dog MAY be capable of performing in comparison to the other dogs in the race. OFF-Brk average, this measurement is generally taken after all the dogs clear the box, but can be taken as late as 70-90 feet from the box. For the 3/8 it's just after all dogs are ON the backstretch and before entering the turn. THIS one is VERY tricky and stumps a lot of people... Firstly this call as a single handicapping Factor is MUCH more effective if used in 3/8 races than in 5/16 races, AND it's very subjective because of chartwriter differences, and box and track bias.... At MOST tracks when you scratch troubled races and using SOLELY the BRK call to handicap 3/8 races, you WILL get a POSITIVE ROI over the long haul.... Whereas, if you SOLELY use the BRK call for 5/16 races, YOU WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE MONEY over the Long haul! 1/8 call average, At ALL Tracks and At ALL distances if this handicapping factor where to be used as a sole factor..... YOU WOULD LOSE MONEY! So, what GOOD is the 1/8 call? It's best use is in conjunction with the other calls. BTW, Stats also show that IF the 1/8 call were the sole factor.... you would fair better in 5/16 races than in 3/8 races. Stretch call average. As a sole indicating Factor you can manage to make a small profit over the long haul in 3/8 races, but in 5/16 races you will end up losing money.... Again this factor is best used like the 1/8 call. Finish call average, Obviously this call would not be as good an indicator for the lower grades but is indicitive for the Top Grades. "Good Dogs find a way to get in the Money, Great Dogs find a way to WIN". This is related to the W-P-S % Factor and is a good indicator of "recency" (What have you done for me lately?). ACP (Average Change of Position), All this factor does is basically mark how many positions were lost or gained on the average in a dog's races. It's important to remember, if a dog is a moderate breaker and gains a couple of positions on average.... he is better than a dog who is a Bad breaker and gains a few positions on the average. In other words, you consider the dog's Brk averages when figuring the ACP, OR you may get burned by dogs that have the SAME ACP yet they Gain positions from a different "Starting" point. FPS/ART, Feet Per Second (Average Running Time) and Best Run Time shown as FPS and WFPS, FPS/ART is the most commonly used "Actual Factor", in fact it would be insanity to ignore.... BUT, just because a dog's times indicate he is Faster than the Field DOES NOT mean he actually is... To get the best running time a dog is capable of, you must have the dog run in ideal circumstances. A dog race is not an ideal circumstance, and it's unlikely you'll see the Best Time a dog is actually capable of listed. First and foremost the dog usually has traffic to contend with that is created by the other dogs running styles and post positions. AT BEST all FPS/ART and Best FPS/ART indicates is what a dog MIGHT be able to do timewise if they get a clean shot. Plus it's a good indicator if your handicapping puts two or more dogs as being "top ranked" by early speed. If it comes down to a two or three dog race for the Early lead, the dog with the best ART stands the best chance of prevailing. OR if there's no traffic and every dog gets the Post Position they want.... It's more likely the dog with the best FPS/ART will do better... Over the VERY long haul it is possible to make a VERY SMALL amount of profit in both 3/8 and 5/16 races using an Average of FPS/ART and Best Time (untroubled races used). GRADE, and WFPS/Race Winning Time, These are the best indicators of the level of competition a dog has been running against. In practice, the HIGHER the Grade the more "Race Time" can be used, whereas GRADE itself can be used somewhat the same for everything above Maiden and Juvenile races. Used in conjunction with Grade, Race Time helps to define exactly how fast the WINNER of the RACE was, and consequently how well the dog you're handicapping did against THAT speed of dog. With these few handicapping factors ALONE it is possible with wager structures and money management to make Profits..... But how do you do it, when most of these factors if used alone, will LOSE money for you? EASY!!! Every RACE has a different Set-Up and could be considered a "Spot Play" and only some, most likely just a very few, of the races will fit your handicapping PLAY/Don't PLAY criteria. Use the handicapping factors like this: Example of a Spot Play---> IF a dog is Ranked 1st for the Brk and Str calls, has an FPS/ART ranking of Second or better and has an ACP rating of third or better.... AND/PLUS the dogs that are ranked ABOVE your pick in ACP are ranked worse than fourth in Brk and ranked below your pick in ART... There are MANY variations of this sort of spot play, it's up to YOU to find them and keep them to yourself! If a RACE DOESN'T STACK UP CORRECTLY TO YOUR SPOT PLAY CRITERIA.... PASS THE RACE Note the outcome and see if the race was hittable by using a different sort of Spot Play or Slightly Modifying something you already have! That IS the BIG Secret to Handicapping and long term profitablity... ENJOY YOURSELF!